Information flow and statistical coupling among Philippine oil prices, 1992–2026

Authors

  • Janny S. Surmieda ⋅ PH Data Science Program, College of Science, and School of Library and Information Science, University of the Philippines Diliman
  • Chara Deanna F Punzal ⋅ PH Data Science Program, College of Science, University of the Philippines Diliman
  • Giovanni A. Tapang ⋅ PH National Institute of Physics, University of the Philippines Diliman

Abstract

We characterize the statistical coupling among Philippine oil prices using monthly data from January 1992 to March 2026 (N = 411). Pearson correlation, mutual information, and transfer entropy are computed pairwise across four refined products (Ron 91, kerosene, avturbo, LPG), the Dubai crude benchmark, and the USD–PHP exchange rate. The refined products and Dubai crude form a tightly coupled cluster (ρ = 0.70–0.94 within products, 0.84–0.90 with crude), while the exchange rate sits apart (ρ = 0.40–0.62). Transfer entropy resolves the direction: Dubai crude is the dominant informational source (TE = 0.09–0.10), with reverse flows an order of magnitude smaller.



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Published

2026-06-08

Issue

2026: Proceedings of the 44th Samahang Pisika ng Pilipinas Physics Conference

Section

Poster Session PB

License

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How to Cite

[1]
JS Surmieda, CDF Punzal, and GA Tapang, Information flow and statistical coupling among Philippine oil prices, 1992–2026, in Proceedings of the 44th Samahang Pisika ng Pilipinas Physics Conference (Philippines, 2026), SPP-2026-PB-32. URL: https://proceedings.spp-online.org/article/view/SPP-2026-PB-32
BibTeX (.bib)