Estimation of the effective reproduction number of COVID-19 in NCR using differentiable physics simulation and its association with meteorological factors

Authors

John Paul L. Santos ⋅ PH Department of Physical Sciences, Polytechnic University of the Philippines
Rhenish C. Simon ⋅ PH Physics Department, De La Salle University, Manila

Abstract

We approximate the infection rate β(t) and removal rate γ(t) of the time-dependent SIR model with a parameterized piece-wise linear function and use differentiable physics simulation to get an estimate of the effective reproduction number R(t). We then use principal component regression to determine the association between the effective reproduction number and meteorological factors.

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Issue

2023: Proceedings of the 41st Samahang Pisika ng Pilipinas Physics Conference

Physics: Connecting islands of knowledge
19-21 July 2023, Del Carmen, Siargao Island

Please visit the SPP2023 activity webpage for more information on this year's Physics Congress.

Article ID

SPP-2023-PB-20

Section

Poster Session B (Complex Systems, Simulations, and Theoretical Physics)

Published

2023-07-10

How to Cite

[1]

JPL Santos and RC Simon, Estimation of the effective reproduction number of COVID-19 in NCR using differentiable physics simulation and its association with meteorological factors, Proceedings of the Samahang Pisika ng Pilipinas 41, SPP-2023-PB-20 (2023). URL: https://proceedings.spp-online.org/article/view/SPP-2023-PB-20.