Effect of convective cloud parameterization calibration on thunderstorm events in Metro Manila

Abstract

Uncertainties associated with parameterization of convective clouds in a weather model are still a key challenge to a skillful quantitative precipitation forecast by numerical weather prediction models. In this study, the sensitivity of rain forecasts to the model parameters of the Kain-Fritsch convective parameterization scheme of the Weather Research and Forecast weather model was investigated. After changes in the cloud modeling scheme was applied to a test case where consecutive thunderstorms days were observed in Metro Manila, a significant improvement in the model performance was observed for certain combination of model parameter changes. However, rain bias still exists with overall lower mean absolute error and root mean square error.