The potential impacts of climate change on rice production in the Philippines

Abstract

Previous statistical studies on the relation of climate and agriculture have emphasized on the impact of daily mean temperature and precipitation on rice yield on a global scale. In this study, we focus on the food security in terms of rice here in the Philippines as affected by climate change. Among the available data for the different climate factors, five were chosen according to statistical significance for the data set on the selected time period (1970-2000) and they are as follows: minimum temperature, maximum temperature, precipitation, wet day frequency, and potential evapo-transpiration. The analyses involved in this study are governed by information on dynamics of crop and climate but mainly focus on statistical analyses.

Results show that the effects of climate change to crops vary in different parts of the country. This is potentially due to the dissimilarity in climate characteristics among the different locations. Beyond looking at the effects of climate change to crop production in the Philippines, further attention is given to the current leading rice producers in the country. The top ten rice-producing provinces: Nueva Ecija, Isabela, Pangasinan, Iloilo, Cagayan, Leyte, Camarines Sur, Tarlac, North Cotabato, Maguindanao generate 46% of the country’s harvest (as of 2009) and therefore, the effects of the climate change and variability on these provinces in the future may greatly influence food security in the Philippines. Analysing the potential impacts of climate change to these provinces may assess the possibility of these locations of becoming agriculture hotspots in the future.