Forecasting the solar cycle 25 maximum with monthly sunspot fluctuations modeled as exponentially-modulated white noise

Authors

Reynan L. Toledo ⋅ PH Department of Physics, University of San Carlos, Cebu City and Physics Department, Western Mindanao State University, Zamboanga City
Christopher C. Bernido ⋅ PH Research Center for Theoretical Physics, Central Visayan Institute Foundation, Jagna and Department of Physics, University of San Carlos, Cebu City
Reinabelle C. Reyes ⋅ PH National Institute of Physics, University of the Philippines Diliman

Abstract

The time of occurrence of the solar maximum of a solar cycle has perennially been difficult to predict. Using a memory modulated white noise framework, we analyzed monthly fluctuations in sunspot numbers for the past 24 solar cycles, from 1755 to 2019. We found a relationship between the memory parameter derived from the first 30 months of sunspot numbers in a solar cycle and the solar maximum. Based on this relationship, a forecast for the solar maximum of solar cycle 25 is presented.

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Issue

2024: Proceedings of the 42nd Samahang Pisika ng Pilipinas Physics Conference

Article ID

SPP-2024-PB-21

Section

Poster Session B (Complex Systems, Computational Physics, and Astrophysics)

Published

2024-06-29

How to Cite

[1]

RL Toledo, CC Bernido, and RC Reyes, Forecasting the solar cycle 25 maximum with monthly sunspot fluctuations modeled as exponentially-modulated white noise, Proceedings of the Samahang Pisika ng Pilipinas 42, SPP-2024-PB-21 (2024). URL: https://proceedings.spp-online.org/article/view/SPP-2024-PB-21.