Forecasting the solar cycle 25 maximum with monthly sunspot fluctuations modeled as exponentially-modulated white noise

Authors

Reynan Toledo Department of Physics, University of San Carlos
Christopher Bernido Central Visayan Institute Foundation
Reinabelle Reyes National Institute of Physics, University of the Philippines, Diliman

Abstract

The time of occurrence of the solar maximum of a solar cycle has perennially been difficult to predict. Using a memory modulated white noise framework, we analyzed monthly fluctuations in sunspot numbers for the past 24 solar cycles, from 1755 to 2019. We found a relationship between the memory parameter derived from the first 30 months of sunspot numbers in a solar cycle and the solar maximum. Based on this relationship, a forecast for the solar maximum of solar cycle 25 is presented

Issue

2024: Proceedings of the 42nd Samahang Pisika ng Pilipinas Physics Conference

Article ID

SPP-2024-PB-21

Section

Poster Session B (Complex Systems, Computational Physics, and Astrophysics)

Published

2024-06-29

How to Cite

[1]

R Toledo, C Bernido, and R Reyes, Forecasting the solar cycle 25 maximum with monthly sunspot fluctuations modeled as exponentially-modulated white noise, Proceedings of the Samahang Pisika ng Pilipinas 42, SPP-2024-PB-21 (2024). URL: https://proceedings.spp-online.org/article/view/SPP-2024-PB-21.