Forecasting the solar cycle 25 maximum with monthly sunspot fluctuations modeled as exponentially-modulated white noise
Abstract
The time of occurrence of the solar maximum of a solar cycle has perennially been difficult to predict. Using a memory modulated white noise framework, we analyzed monthly fluctuations in sunspot numbers for the past 24 solar cycles, from 1755 to 2019. We found a relationship between the memory parameter derived from the first 30 months of sunspot numbers in a solar cycle and the solar maximum. Based on this relationship, a forecast for the solar maximum of solar cycle 25 is presented.
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