Markov chain analysis of southwest monsoon rainfall time-series data from 1951 to 2021 in areas with Type I Philippine climate

Authors

  • Gerard Anthony Delos Reyes ⋅ PH Institute of Mathematical Sciences and Physics, University of the Philippines Los Baños
  • Nelio Altoveros ⋅ PH Institute of Mathematical Sciences and Physics, University of the Philippines Los Baños
  • Renebeth Payod ⋅ PH Institute of Mathematical Sciences and Physics, University of the Philippines Los Baños

Abstract

Time-series rainfall data of the southwest monsoon were analyzed using the Markov chain to determine the tendencies of rainfall states in the areas with a Type I Philippine climate. We analyzed 71 years of rainfall data from June to September 1951 to 2021. Based on the computed stationary distribution, time-series rainfall data from Type I climate zones tend to lie in state R1 (0 mm to 5 mm) with long-term transition probability from any possible state to state R1 of πR1 = 0.551775 during the season. The long-term transition probability from any possible state to state R2 (6 mm to 25 mm) is πR2 = 0.28182, about half of the value for state R1. Classified rainfall states R3 to R6 have negligible long-term transition probabilities. These values correspond to the long-term tendencies of the rainfall state for the entire study period. Thus, daily rainfall from June to September mostly took place between the threshold of 0 mm to 5 mm for the past 71 years. This implies that the bulk of rainfall in Type I climate is concentrated on certain days, leaving the majority of remaining days to have dry to light rain weather.

About the Speakers

Nelio Altoveros, Institute of Mathematical Sciences and Physics, University of the Philippines Los Baños

 

 

Renebeth Payod, Institute of Mathematical Sciences and Physics, University of the Philippines Los Baños

 

 

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Issue

Article ID

SPP-2023-3D-04

Section

Earth Systems Physics

Published

2023-06-25

How to Cite

[1]
GA Delos Reyes, N Altoveros, and R Payod, Markov chain analysis of southwest monsoon rainfall time-series data from 1951 to 2021 in areas with Type I Philippine climate, Proceedings of the Samahang Pisika ng Pilipinas 41, SPP-2023-3D-04 (2023). URL: https://proceedings.spp-online.org/article/view/SPP-2023-3D-04.