Virus spread simulation in a close community via Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) model: Insights on the influenza A (H1N1) virus

Abstract

Using the Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) model of disease transmission, we substantiate the effects on the close-population community of viruses through the interplay of their inherent characteristics. The model was used to give an outlook on the new virus strain H1N1 influenza virus commonly known as the swine flu. Two important traits were attributed to the virus, the infectiousness and recovery chance. For the current known traits of the virus (high infectiousness and high recovery chance) we shown that the number of swine flu victims could be large but only minimal deaths is associated with it. Furthermore, we also dwelled into the consequences of possible mutations of the swine flu virus. It was suggested that the number of deaths could be attributed to the recovery chance and that infectiousness is related to the amount of time before the elimination of the disease.