Virus spread simulation in a close community via Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) model: Insights on the influenza A (H1N1) virus

Authors

Darwin B. Putungan ⋅ PH Institute of Mathematical Sciences and Physics, University of the Philippines Los Baños
Alexandra B. Santos ⋅ PH National Institute of Physics, University of the Philippines Diliman

Abstract

Using the Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) model of disease transmission, we substantiate the effects on the close-population community of viruses through the interplay of their inherent characteristics. The model was used to give an outlook on the new virus strain H1N1 influenza virus commonly known as the swine flu. Two important traits were attributed to the virus, the infectiousness and recovery chance. For the current known traits of the virus (high infectiousness and high recovery chance) we shown that the number of swine flu victims could be large but only minimal deaths is associated with it. Furthermore, we also dwelled into the consequences of possible mutations of the swine flu virus. It was suggested that the number of deaths could be attributed to the recovery chance and that infectiousness is related to the amount of time before the elimination of the disease.

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Issue

2009: Proceedings of the 27th Samahang Pisika ng Pilipinas Physics Congress

Article ID

SPP-2009-5D-02

Section

Complex Systems

Published

2009-10-28

How to Cite

[1]

DB Putungan and AB Santos, Virus spread simulation in a close community via Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) model: Insights on the influenza A (H1N1) virus, Proceedings of the Samahang Pisika ng Pilipinas 27, SPP-2009-5D-02 (2009). URL: https://proceedings.spp-online.org/article/view/SPP-2009-5D-02.