Forecasting tropical cyclone tracks using MM5

Authors

Francia B. Avila ⋅ PH Manila Observatory, Ateneo de Manila University Campus
Faye T. Cruz ⋅ PH Manila Observatory, Ateneo de Manila University Campus
Ronald N. Choy ⋅ PH Manila Observatory, Ateneo de Manila University Campus
Emmanuel G. Anglo ⋅ PH Manila Observatory, Ateneo de Manila University Campus

Abstract

The Fifth-generation PSU/NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5) was used to predict tropical cyclone tracks that developed near the Philippines in 2003. The model's sensitivity to the parameterization schemes for the cumulus, planetary boundary layer and explicit moisture was investigated to determine the optimal model configuration for predicting the track of a tropical cyclone. The 6-hour forecast skill of the model in locating the eye of the storm (i.e. location of minimum sea-level pressure) indicated a greater sensitivity to the cumulus parameterization scheme (CPS) than to the planetary boundary layer or explicit moisture parameterization schemes. Among the three CPSs used in this study, the Betts-Miller CPS consistently resulted in the most accurate and smoothest tracks upon validation with observations. Cases under Betts-Miller CPS also gave the most well defined eye for all cyclone events. Results suggest that the optimal configuration of MM5 for forecasting the tracks of tropical cyclones over the Philippine domain uses the Betts-Miller CPS, Blackadar PBL and Simple Ice moisture parameterization.

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Issue

2004: Proceedings of the 22nd Samahang Pisika ng Pilipinas Physics Congress

Article ID

SPP-2004-2G-02

Section

Complex Systems

Published

2004-10-25

How to Cite

[1]

FB Avila, FT Cruz, RN Choy, and EG Anglo, Forecasting tropical cyclone tracks using MM5, Proceedings of the Samahang Pisika ng Pilipinas 22, SPP-2004-2G-02 (2004). URL: https://proceedings.spp-online.org/article/view/SPP-2004-2G-02.