Network analysis of Dengue epidemics in the Philippines

Authors

Jaime Lorenzo C. Olivares ⋅ PH National Institute of Physics, University of the Philippines Diliman
Raul V. Destura ⋅ PH National Institute of Health, University of the Philippines Diliman
Johnrob Y. Bantang ⋅ PH National Institute of Physics, University of the Philippines Diliman

Abstract

Dengue epidemics have been a long-term problem for many countries, especially those with tropical climate such as the Philippines. In this work, we analyze how dengue disease spreads from region to region in the Philippine archipelago. As a network, each region is represented by a node. Using a yearly historical data (year 2000 through 2011) of the regional number of reported dengue cases, region A is connected to region B if A is high the previous year t_-1 and B transitioned from low to high in the year t. A region is classified as "high" for a year if its number of dengue cases is greater than the average number of dengue cases for over the different regions that year. The clustering coefficient of resulting network of regions is then computed for every transition year. NCR, CARAGA, and Regions 3, 1 and 10 are the leading regions that act as source of dengue cases for the time span investigated. This result may have serious implication in the prevention and mitigation of dengue epidemics in the Philippines and the network approach could be used for predicting next dengue incidence based on the current high incidence of dengue.

Downloads

Issue

2015: Proceedings of the 33rd Samahang Pisika ng Pilipinas Physics Congress

Article ID

SPP-2015-PB-34

Section

Poster Session PB

Published

2015-06-03

How to Cite

[1]

JLC Olivares, RV Destura, and JY Bantang, Network analysis of Dengue epidemics in the Philippines, Proceedings of the Samahang Pisika ng Pilipinas 33, SPP-2015-PB-34 (2015). URL: https://proceedings.spp-online.org/article/view/1240.