Investigating the role of quarantine and screening efficiency in dengue epidemics

Abstract

We analyze the progress of the dengue epidemic in a two-patch system using a host-vector metapopulation model. Two quantities of interest characterizing the outbreak are identified: (a) the time when the number of infected hosts becomes greatest, t_peak, and (b) the highest fraction I_peak of infected hosts. Using these characteristic values, the epidemic progress in and across the two patches is evaluated against the efficiency of two control measures: quarantine of hosts, Q and screening off of vectors, Q_s. We show that quarantine measures may need to extend to include even those exposed from the infected vector, implying an almost impossible solution to prevent the epidemic since detection of exposure is currently not possible. On the other hand, screening off hosts from contact with vectors efficiently reduces the magnitude of the epidemic to almost zero if  Q_s is greater than 70%.